GIG Economic Bulletin – April 4, 2022

The latest independent economic forecasts continue to show growth for 2022 despite the uncertainty caused by the ongoing situation in Ukraine, while Greek banks have benefitted from a ratings upgrade and positive analyst reports.

Economic BulletinInsights
Greece’s first logistics park is on its way with the conclusion of a revised agreement for the concession of Thriasio I, while the deadline for offers on the adjacent Thriasio II site has been prolonged to June, 2022. Independent forecasts continue to predict positive growth for Greece this year ranging between 3.5% and 5.5% despite uncertainty derived from the war in Ukraine, and ratings agency Moody’s has upgraded all four of Greece’s systemic banks.

Macro

The IMF is forecasting growth of 3.5% and average inflation of 4.5% for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine, citing as positive the quick rebound from the pandemic, supportive fiscal policies, and high levels of direct investment.

Despite uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, UBS is forecasting 5.5% growth for 2022, followed by 4.7% for 2023.

The government is moving ahead with a targeted support package of €2 billion that will be submitted in Parliament next week in a supplementary budget. Alternate Finance Minister Theodoros Skylakakis has said that he expects the impact of the Ukraine conflict on the Greek economy to come to one to two percentage points.

Producer prices jumped by 33.6% in February according to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). The index set a historical record by reaching 137.09 points, beating the last high recorded in January.

Unemployment dropped to 11.9% in February from 12.8% in January according to ELSTAT, falling below the 12% mark for the first time since 2010.

The newly-formed Hellenic Export Guarantee Company will be guaranteeing €8.7 billion of exports over a period of five years, aiming to guarantee an estimated 6% of exports from the current 1.45%.

Energy

Conglomerate MYTILINEOS has signed deals with three subsidiaries of Drax Group in the UK for the construction of three OCGT gas-fired electricity generators with a capacity of 299 MW each.

Energy exploration and production company Energean has appointed Halliburton to assess the potential for carbon storage in the Prinos basin near Kavala. The project has a budget of €390 million and has been green-lighted for RRF funding.

Prinos Basin Copyright: Cristi Savin / Shutterstock.com

Privatisations

The deadline for binding offers on mining group LARCO has been given another extension to May 5. Industry sources say there is only one bidder remaining.

Infrastructure

COSCO reported a 63% increase in profits in 2021 from Piraeus Port, despite a 4% fall in total traffic and a 2.5% fall in container traffic. Net profits for the year totalled €31.76 million.

Thessaloniki Port Authority Group reported €19.8 million net profit in 2021, up 25% on the previous year, with growth noted in all areas of activity. Arrivals were up 7.1%, container traffic was up 2.2%, and volumes increased by 13.3%.

Traffic on Greece’s seven toll roads showed a quick recovery, marginally exceeding pre-pandemic levels in H2 2021. In H1 2021, journey figures were 28% below 2019 levels.

Expressions of interest in the Attiki Odos concession are expected by April 20. The existing managers of the highway will participate, as will MYTILINEOS with Vinci, Copelouzos with Macquarie, and GEK Terna. 

The revised deal on the 60-year concession for Thriasio I was signed between GAIAOSE and the Goldair-ETBA VIPE JV, paving the road for the first logistics park in Greece, and an investment of €158 million. The deadline for offers on the 30-year concession on the adjacent Thriasio II logistics site has been extended to June 28 from the original date of January 26. The concession includes construction works with a budget of €562 million.

Real Estate

Construction costs have shot up by 25-30% in the past year according to industry sources, who are anticipating a knock-on effect on property prices. ELSTAT’s construction materials index was up 9% Y-o-Y in February.

New building permits were up by 18.3% Y-o-Y in December 2021. Over the whole of 2021, building activity was up by 26.6% in terms of permit numbers compared to the prior year, while it increased 46.6% by area and 45.7% by volume.

Digital

United Group has confirmed its intention to invest €1.3 billion over the next five years, following the merger of Nova and Wind. The investment will focus on fibre, 5G and subscriber TV.

The turnover of online betting platforms totalled €17.4 billion in 2021, nine times greater than in 2015. The total turnover of the betting industry was €22.5 billion.

Tourism

Aviation traffic in Greece is expected to exceed 90% of 2019 levels in the period to May 8 according to Eurocontrol, while passenger numbers are expected to equal or exceed those of 2019.

Airline carrier Aegean expects activity in the first quarter to be down by -30% vs. 2019, -18% in the second quarter and just -5% in the July-September period. The airline reports that reservations in the first two months of the year were at 80% to 83% of the equivalent period in 2019.

The Thessaloniki Port Authority is expecting 62 confirmed cruise arrivals in 2022, compared to just 17 in 2021.

Banks

Moody’s upgraded NBG and Eurobank by two notches to Ba3, Alpha by one to B1 and Piraeus Bank by one to B2. The agency kept the outlook “positive” for all.

Axia Research has retained its “buy” recommendation for Greek banks, but trimmed its valuations to reflect reduced expectations for economic growth.

Goldman Sachs has increased its target price for all four systemic banks. Eurobank and Alpha are rated “buy”, Piraeus is rated “neutral” and there is no recommendation given for NBG.

Deposit outflows slowed to €260 million in February, from €2.23 billion at the start of 2022 according to the Bank of Greece (BoG). Corporate lending is up by 4.4%, at €1 billion.

Stock Market

The ASE general index gained 3.33% on a weekly basis to close Friday as 890.70 points, continuing its rebound from the lows marked at the start of March.

Partners of Greece Investor Guide

Load More...
Back to top button
Close
Close